In three questions, Can Kasapoğlu assesses a latest deal by Turkish drone-maker Baykar with Saudi Arabia and its potential results.
Why Did the Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement Turn Baykar Into a Geopolitical Actor?
Let us get to the conclusion instantly; Turkish drone-maker Baykar has develop into a geopolitical actor by way of the profitable Akinci strategic fight unmanned aerial car (UAV) techniques to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The deal will enhance Türkiye’s weight throughout the Euro-Atlantic camp. The settlement will result in a variety of outcomes, starting from bolstering Riyadh’s capabilities within the Iran-Saudi Arabia army stability to countering China’s clout within the Middle East by way of arms gross sales. Here is why.
Not all protection offers are created equal, as a result of they’ve various geopolitical magnitudes. The geopolitical magnitude in query doesn’t solely stem from the fight efficacy of weapon techniques transactions but additionally the political-military conjuncture. For instance, the US offering Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Taiwan to defend towards the Chinese Navy’s expansionist agenda or supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with M-142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) towards Russian aggression loom giant as telling circumstances in respect.
The UAV settlement signed between Baykar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initially got here into the highlight for its protection economics dimensions. Indeed, the deal will in all probability mark one of many largest arms exports secured by the Turkish arms makers. The Saudi deal, nonetheless, is nicely past merely protection economics. To grasp the chief drivers behind the procurement, one ought to ask two questions. First, why did Saudi Arabia want the Akinci? Second, what does the Akinci sale to Saudi Arabia must do with China’s Middle East coverage and its nice energy competitors technique?
How Will the Akinci UAV Foster the Saudi Warfighting Deterrence?
The Akinci drone is the very beast that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wants, particularly given its fire-power. With its giant payload capability, 45,000-feet operational altitude, superior mission computer systems and weapon techniques certifications, the Akinci baseline has regularly changed into a high-flying stand-off munitions service.
A better have a look at the weapon techniques configuration would inform extra in regards to the Saudi determination. Recently, the Akinci has gained aeroballistic missile launch capabilities by way of the TRG-230 Kaplan missile certification. Aeroballistic missiles pose a problem to protection techniques due to the mixture of excessive strike angles and speeds. Additionally, their warheads are extremely damaging.
Among the opposite notable weapon system configurations are the Stand-off Medium-Range Munition (SOM) cruise missile, Cakir mini-cruise missile, and Kemankes loitering munitions. (Baykar-produced UAV-certified kamikaze drone with electro-optical digicam). The traits of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones are very completely different from these of aeroballistic missiles. The latter belongings are designed to strategy their targets at decrease speeds, at a lot decrease altitudes, and with complicated maneuvers profiting from terrain masking. Their operational function is to use gaps in enemy radar networks and sensors. Of these techniques, Kemankes just isn’t solely a strike asset but additionally an intelligence booster.
Any weapon system features within the realm of ideas of operations. In a hypothetical warfighting situation, think about quite a few Akinci drones launching deep-strikes on useful targets behind enemy strains utilizing TRG-230 Kaplan aeroballistic missiles, SOM cruise missiles, Cakir mini-cruise missiles, and Kemankes loitering munitions. Each weapon system launched would strategy the targets with completely different flight traits, from completely different angles, and at completely different speeds. The assault can be utterly robotic in nature. In such a salvo, the mixture of various munitions and robotic platforms can be extremely damaging whereas being casualty-aversive.
But what sort of menace setting does Saudi Arabia face that it wants the Akinci drone? To perceive the Kingdom’s protection necessities, one must revisit a sequence of incidents, together with the 2019 Aramco assaults, the Houthi missile and drone salvos launched from Yemen, in addition to Iran’s missile and unmanned techniques proliferation packages.
Over the latest years, Iran and its proxies have turned to operational designs utilizing loitering munitions together with ballistic and cruise missiles. The convergence of stand-off weapons and robotic warfare techniques result in an offense-dominant regime towards identified air defenses. In truth, even a small variety of weapon techniques breaking by way of conventional air protection techniques can have sensational results. Examining the political and financial penalties of the Aramco assaults can be illuminating on this respect.
With its strategic weapon system configurations, the Akinci will play an important function in Riyadh’s counteroffensive capabilities. Thus, Baykar’s success may also present vital benefits to Turkish missile options within the extremely worthwhile Gulf market.
What is the China Dimension of the Baykar-Saudi Deal and its Significance for the US?
Saudi army consultants know that they can not successfully reply to the regional missile and robotic warfare menace solely by way of costly air and missile protection techniques purchases.
This is why Saudi Arabia has each a ballistic missile program and vital purchases of UAVs. Of course, one other function of the ballistic missile program is to function a method of supply as a part of Saudi Arabia’s plans to develop nuclear capabilities in a situation the place Iran involves possess nuclear arms.
For now, let’s put aside the nuclear points and solely typical warfare elements.
China comes into the forefront in assembly Saudi Arabia’s offensive deterrent necessities. This is as a result of Saudi Arabia’s conventional arms suppliers, American arms makers, have been unable to export offensive strategic weapon techniques to Riyadh as a consequence of Washington’s self-exercised restrictions.
With the Akinci sale to Saudi Arabia, Baykar has positioned Türkiye as a NATO nation able to balancing China within the unmanned aerial fight techniques section of the Gulf-Arab market, one of many world’s most profitable weapons markets.
Also, the Akinci will in a short while develop into a big participant within the army stability between Iran and Saudi Arabia as soon as Riyadh provides the armed UAV to its arsenal.
From counterbalancing Iran to snatching up China’s share within the Gulf Arab market, we’re speaking about vital geopolitical business right here.
Source: www.anews.com.tr
