A touch of a kiss on the left, one other on the proper, plus an enormous smile. When Bashar al-Assad acquired the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates in Damascus final Wednesday, he might hardly cover his good temper.
For Syria’s rulers it was already clear that the primary week of the brand new yr could be a great one. Not solely might he be happy to additional intensify the politically and economically essential contact with the rulers of the Gulf, whom he had already visited in Abu Dhabi final yr. No, an essential neighbor from the north additionally made one other huge step in the direction of him.
Erdogan speaks of conferences
“We will bring our foreign ministers together and then, depending on developments, we will come together as leaders.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mentioned so on Thursday, promising a private assembly with Assad for the primary time because the warfare in Syria started in 2011 – the person he had referred to as a “murderer” prior to now.
For years, the Turkish authorities, as a supporter of the Syrian opposition, had pushed for Assad’s fall. Not a lot is heard of that now.
The introduced assembly of overseas ministers was preceded by a gathering of protection ministers in Moscow on the finish of December. At the invitation of Assad’s most essential ally, Russia, they wished to search for “solutions” in Syria collectively, it mentioned.
Erdogan’s drawback with the temper in the direction of refugees
What options do you imply? It’s no secret that the Turkish president is below home political strain within the election yr as a result of sentiment in the direction of Syrian refugees in his nation has not too long ago deteriorated considerably. More than three and a half million Syrians dwell in Turkey and Erdogan want to do away with these individuals.
This matter is alleged to have been mentioned in Moscow, but additionally about additional motion towards the Kurdish militia YPG, which controls north-eastern Syria and is a thorn in Turkey’s aspect.
What might a deal appear to be?
Is Ankara providing Damascus the prospect of resuming diplomatic relations and returning to nearer commerce and safety ties in alternate for persuading Assad to completely rule out full autonomy for Kurds in Syria? Quite attainable.
In addition, Erdogan is prone to hope that his floor offensive towards the Kurds in Syria, which has been introduced a number of occasions prior to now few weeks, ought to it come about with out a lot resistance from Assad and his Russian supporters.
Turkey describes Kurdish forces on its border as a terrorist risk. Since 2016, Erdogan’s troopers have superior throughout the border a number of occasions with tanks and are holding elements of Syrian territory below their management.
Syrian opposition in mounting concern
In Syria, nonetheless, it isn’t solely the Kurds who’re alarmed on the new closeness between Erdogan and Assad. The concern of being deserted by Ankara is rising, particularly within the areas nonetheless managed by the Syrian opposition.
In the insurgent area of Idlib, the place Islamist teams are probably the most influential, many individuals see Turkey as a protecting energy. Many determined opponents of the regime are taking to the streets in Idlib lately, waving the black, white and inexperienced flag of the Syrian opposition and loudly calling on Erdogan to not get nearer to Assad.
Will their protest succeed? In all chance not.
Idlib again within the UN Security Council
Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council is as soon as once more coping with the scenario in Idlib this Monday, as a result of a UN decision will expire on January tenth, which ensures that support provides may also be introduced by way of Turkey to elements of the Syrian nation that aren’t managed by the federal government in Damascus.
Six months in the past, Russia initially vetoed it and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing needed to be briefly closed. Should such a stalemate happen once more this winter, it will have devastating penalties for the civilian inhabitants.
According to help organizations, malnutrition already impacts greater than one million internally displaced individuals in north-west Syria. Will Russia nonetheless veto this time? Unlikely, however can’t be dominated out.
New alternatives for talks for Assad
Bashar al-Assad will be capable to have a look at all this in peace, as he appears to be on the upswing. Not solely do his troops management round two-thirds of Syria, no, after a few years of isolation, throughout which his authorities was solely supported by Russia and Iran, long-lost channels of communication are opening up for him.
And the west? In Europe and America, the response to latest Arab and Turkish advances in the direction of Assad has ranged from irritated to irritated. “We have made it clear to our allies and partners that now is not the time to normalize relations,” US State Department spokesman Ned Price mentioned in Washington not too long ago.
A scolding that sounded somewhat helpless. The affect of the United States in Syria specifically is prone to proceed to say no in view of the newest developments.
