While variations stay between Ankara and Damascus over the Syrian civil battle, either side share considerations concerning the presence of the YPG/PKK terror group in northern Syria.
After greater than a decade of diplomatic discord that put them on reverse sides within the Syrian battle, Ankara and Damascus have lately moved to normalise relations as Syrian and Turkish defence ministers shook fingers in Moscow in a groundbreaking assembly on Wednesday.
The tripartite assembly between the Turkish, Russian and Syrian defence ministers – Hulusi Akar, Sergei Shoigu and Ali Mahmoud Abbas – means that there may very well be an finish to the brutal battle within the Middle Eastern nation.
After the vital assembly, the Turkish defence ministry launched a press release, saying that the three ministers mentioned points starting from the Syrian disaster to the refugee subject and combating terrorist threats within the war-torn nation’s territory bordering Türkiye.
The assertion additionally underlined that extra conferences between Ankara and Damascus can be held within the close to future to deepen the reconciliation course of, which goals to deliver stability to Syria. Ankara-Damascus ties deteriorated after the Syrian civil battle broke out in 2011.
Experts say that in current months, Türkiye and Syria have more and more seemed to bury previous diplomatic variations and prioritise home safety considerations by tackling terror teams working alongside the border between the 2 neighbours.
The indicators of a rising reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus come amid rising indications that Türkiye might launch floor operations in opposition to the YPG/PKK terror group working from northern Syria.
“There was a war which has produced many pains, resentment, destruction and sectarian tensions. These are deep wounds which particularly need a repair process. Can both sides launch a process to heal these wounds? Hope they can. I want to see it happening,” Abdullah Agar, an Istanbul-based safety skilled, advised TRT World.
Behind-the-scenes talks
Top Turkish officers have beforehand indicated that the continuing behind-the-scenes talks between high intelligence officers of each nations have laid the groundwork for a doable political reconciliation. Both Syrian and Turkish intelligence chiefs have been current in Wednesday’s assembly.
“This path is not an easy one. But if both sides show their commitment to this process and external powers [like Russia, Iran and the US] do not hamper it, I evaluate good things can be done to realise a normalisation,” says Agar. The tripartite Moscow assembly reveals that Russia helps Turkish-Syrian reconciliation greater than every other political actors.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has developed sturdy ties together with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by means of the Astana peace course of aiming to handle the Syrian battle, lately indicated that fractured ties with Damascus might heal.
“There should be no resentment in politics,” Erdogan stated after shaking fingers with Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el Sisi final month in the course of the FIFA World Cup opening ceremony.
“In the next period, just as it [Türkiye] has entered a [normalisation] path with Egypt, it can also enter another [normalisation] path with Syria.”
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Before Egypt, Türkiye had additionally normalised relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel after the Arab Spring rebellions largely failed throughout the Middle East.
During the assembly of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) in Istanbul final month, Erdogan referred to as on Muslim nations to assist stabilise Syria.
“For Syria to get rid of the spiral of conflict, humanitarian crisis and terror, Islamic countries should put stronger will and actively support the efforts for a political solution,” he stated, underlining Türkiye’s intentions to get Syria again on observe.
A typical enemy
Syria has been battered by the more-than-a-decade-long civil battle that has killed 1000’s of civilians and uprooted tens of millions of individuals, resulting in the emergence of terror teams reminiscent of Daesh and YPG/PKK. The YPG and Daesh are threats to each Türkiye and Syria, neighbours with a protracted shared historical past in a troublesome Middle East neighbourhood.
The YPG controls a big swath of territory throughout northeastern Syria, together with the nation’s oil fields in addition to dams, posing a transparent and current risk to Damascus’s territorial integrity.
The YPG’s management in northern Syria additionally compromises Turkish border safety.
While the civil battle has made many endure, the YPG, the Syrian wing of the banned terrorist group PKK, has used it to realize extra territory and political leverage due to the monetary and diplomatic help it receives from the US.
PKK has been designated a terror group by each Türkiye and the US. The YPG has exploited variations between Syria and Türkiye to its favour. But a political rapprochement between the 2 neighbours would possibly finish the phobia group’s maintain in northern Syria, in accordance with Agar.
“This threat (YPG) has become a common threat for Ankara and Damascus. Can we eliminate the hostility between us and cooperate against the YPG despite all the problems between us? Yes, we can,” says Agar.
The Assad regime stands to realize from such a collaboration.
Turkish-Syrian cooperation would possibly assist Damascus regain its management of the japanese aspect of the Euphrates River, which is underneath the YPG dominance, guaranteeing the equal distribution of sources throughout all Syrian territories, says Ulas Pehlivan, one other worldwide safety skilled.
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But there are lingering issues between Damascus and Ankara, starting from the standing of tens of millions of Syrian refugees dwelling in Türkiye to different points like how the Syrian opposition may very well be built-in into the present political construction led by Assad and his members of the family.
While the Assad forces have been capable of acquire a lot of Syria with the assistance of Russia and Iran by means of the course of the civil battle, “an internal [political] reconciliation, which is essential for international normalisation of Syria, is yet to be reached,” Pehlivan tells TRT World.
A sturdy Syrian settlement of inside issues is essential to a long-term rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, in accordance with Pehlivan. In addition to the nationwide reconciliation course of, Pehlivan believes Syria can see Türkiye as a useful associate and mediator between opposition teams and Damascus.
“Ankara and Damascus should cooperate on the fight against all terror groups, bilateral trade, fair distribution of water and oil sources and reconstruction of Syria as well as improving the conditions in Syria for the voluntary return of refugees from Türkiye,” says Pehlivan.
Other components
Syria-Türkiye talks may also be affected by how exterior actors like Russia and Iran, the 2 backers of Damascus, and the US, the ally of the YPG, will act relating to a doable rapprochement between the 2 neighbours.
Countrywide protests have rocked Iran, whereas Russia has confronted stiff resistance and even a counteroffensive throughout japanese Ukraine.
Despite a fancy political equation throughout Eurasia and the Middle East, the US and Russia would possibly theoretically develop a political consensus akin to Türkiye’s nationwide safety considerations in Syria, in accordance with Agar. “It’s difficult but not impossible,” he says.
Agar believes that Türkiye’s preparation to launch one other cross-border operation in opposition to the YPG has elevated the site visitors of talks between Moscow, Washington, Damascus and Ankara, elevating the prospect of normalisation between the 2 neighbours.
“As a result, Türkiye’s expectations [in regard to the YPG/PKK in northern Syria] can even be met without a Turkish operation,” Agar says. The Türkiye-Syria normalisation course of may be formed by how a possible Turkish operation in northern Syria proceeds, in accordance with Agar.
Syria’s horrible funds additionally determine as one of many components between the 2 nations’ doable rapprochement, in accordance with Pehlivan. “Syria needs Türkiye for economic assistance,” Pehlivan says.
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Kamal Alam, a army analyst and a non-resident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council, additionally believes that Assad wants monetary assist. “Türkiye can be important there,” Alam tells TRT World.
“Türkiye is the most important country for Syria, though. That’s why Assad said many times that he could shake hands with Erdogan,” Alam provides.
Devlet Bahceli, considered one of Erdogan’s strongest allies and the chief of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has additionally expressed help for a Syria-Türkiye reconciliation.
“The contact our president established with Egyptian President Sisi in Qatar is the right one. In our opinion, this move should be backed up with another one and the ground for a meeting with Syrian Arab Republic President Bashar al Assad should be opened,” Bahceli stated.
“A common will should be formed against terrorist organisations,” he added, referring to each nations’ shared nationwide safety considerations in relation to the presence of the YPG/PKK and Daesh in northern Syria.
Source: TRT World
